The Baseline Brief, edition 02
Four things that moved in carbon this week, and what they mean if you export from Africa.
Europe's carbon border price jumped 9 percent
On 5 October the European Commission set the Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO2. That is up from €75.28 in Q2 and €75.36 in Q1, and it is the highest quarterly price published so far this year.
The figure is calculated from EU Emissions Trading System auction clearing prices, so it moves with the European carbon market rather than being set by anyone's policy decision.
If you priced a European contract earlier this year on a €75 assumption, that assumption is now roughly 9 percent out of date. The cost lands on your buyer, which means it lands in your negotiation. It also cuts the other way: the lower your verified embedded emissions, the fewer certificates your buyer surrenders. A clean number is worth more at €82 than it was at €75.
Ghana has committed more than half its Article 6 budget
Ghana's Carbon Market Office has authorised 12.7 million tonnes of ITMOs by mid-2026, about 53 percent of the 24 million tonne ceiling Ghana set for Article 6 transfers. There are 91 projects in the pipeline representing a potential 423 million tonnes, 51 of them already onboarded onto the Ghana Carbon Registry, and 11 authorised.
Five bilateral partnerships are in place: Switzerland, Sweden, Singapore, South Korea, and Liechtenstein under negotiation. Projected government revenue from ITMO transactions is around $66 million by 2030.
The ceiling is not arbitrary. It exists so that selling mitigation outcomes abroad does not hollow out Ghana's own climate targets. More than half of it is now spoken for, with a pipeline many times larger than what remains. Access is going to get more competitive, and the projects that clear will be the ones that can evidence what they claim.
Africa's carbon summit lands in Kigali
The Carbon Markets Africa Summit runs 13 to 15 October in Kigali, bringing together governments, project developers, investors and technical specialists. The programme has shifted from readiness to transactions.
Elsewhere on the continent, Rwanda opened Article 6 project applications in January under its bilateral agreement with Singapore, Uganda introduced National Climate Change Mechanisms Regulations in 2025, Kenya is building registry architecture, and South Africa is weighing reforms to clarify the legal status of carbon credits.
Three years ago the conversation was about whether African countries could participate. It is now about who captures the value when they do.
Buyers are writing terms, not just prices
Under Singapore's agreement with Rwanda, eligible companies can use qualifying international credits to offset up to 5 percent of taxable emissions. Singapore cancels 2 percent of credits at issuance, and directs 5 percent of the value toward Rwandan adaptation measures.
These are the structural terms that decide whether a carbon deal is good for the host country, and they are negotiated long before anyone argues about price per tonne. If you are developing a project in Ghana, the bilateral framework you sit under has already set a lot of your economics.
The thread running through all four
Every one of these stories is a story about evidence.
The CBAM price only rewards you if your emissions figure is verified. Ghana's remaining Article 6 headroom will go to projects that can prove their mitigation. Kigali is about transactions, and transactions need something to transact on. Bilateral terms get enforced against registries and reported outcomes.
The market has stopped asking whether you intend to measure. It is asking what you measured, who checked it, and whether the paperwork survives someone looking at it properly.
Sources: European Commission CBAM certificate price publication, 5 October 2026 · Ghana Carbon Market Office Annual Progress Report, August 2026 · Carbon Markets Africa Summit 2026 programme.