The Baseline Brief, edition 04
Where carbon stands as COP31 opens, and what it means if you export from Africa.
Ghana has issued 34,705 tonnes
Ghana's own carbon registry lists three issuances from the Transformative Cookstove Activity, the country's flagship Article 6.2 project: 5,994 tonnes of 2023 vintage and 5,739 tonnes of 2024 vintage, both issued on 18 June 2025, and 22,972 tonnes issued on 14 October 2026.
That is 34,705 tonnes in total. Everything Ghana has ever issued under Article 6.
Set that against the 12.7 million tonnes Ghana has authorised, a figure from the Carbon Market Office's own progress report and roughly 53% of the national Article 6 ceiling. Issued volume is about a quarter of one percent of authorised volume.
This is not a failure, and it is not unique to Ghana. Authorisation is a government saying a project may transfer credits. Issuance means the reductions happened, were measured, were verified, and survived review. The second thing is much harder and much slower than the first, and the gap between them is where the entire African carbon market currently sits.
It is worth knowing the real number, because the headline figures circulating about Africa's carbon potential are authorisations and pipeline estimates. The number that has cleared verification is four orders of magnitude smaller.
Europe has started negotiating how far CBAM reaches
Trilogue negotiations on extending CBAM to downstream products opened on 20 October. Parliament, Council and Commission now have to reconcile three different lists, which have ranged from 180 products to 457.
European industry is pushing hard for the widest version. Eurofer, EUROMETAL, Eunipra, IndustriALL and Steel for Packaging Europe issued a joint statement calling for the "broadest possible" extension, arguing that any product left outside CBAM will simply be replaced by imports as free ETS allowances are phased out.
Note who is lobbying for a bigger carbon border tax. It is not environmental groups. It is European steel producers who do not want to be undercut while carrying a carbon cost their competitors avoid. That tells you the political durability of this mechanism, whatever happens with the American challenge to it.
The proposed start date for the extension remains 1 January 2028.
Two dates in the next three weeks
9 November. Comments close on the Office of the United States Trade Representative's review of CBAM, which is examining whether Europe's carbon border rules amount to a trade barrier against American producers.
9 to 20 November. COP31 opens at the EXPO Center in Antalya, Türkiye.
What COP31 is actually for this year
Article 6 has stopped being a negotiation. The rules were settled at previous COPs and the mechanism is in implementation. What gets judged in Antalya is whether the plumbing works: whether transfers complete, whether national registries connect to the international infrastructure, and whether corresponding adjustments are actually being made so the same tonne is not counted twice.
Which is to say the question at COP31 is the same question Ghana's registry just answered. Not what has been promised. What has been delivered, and can it be checked.
The thread
Authorised is a press release. Issued is a number.
Twelve point seven million tonnes is an ambition with a government signature on it. Thirty-four thousand seven hundred and five is what exists. Both are true, and only one of them survives someone checking.
The whole market is converging on the same test. Not whether you intend to reduce emissions, and not whether a regulator has blessed the plan, but whether the tonne can be evidenced.
Sources: Ghana Carbon Registry, Transformative Cookstove Activity in Rural Ghana, issuance records to 14 October 2026 · Ghana Carbon Market Office Annual Progress Report, August 2026 · Joint industry statement on CBAM downstream extension, October 2026 · Office of the United States Trade Representative CBAM consultation · UNFCCC COP31, Antalya, 9–20 November 2026.